APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING CUSTOMS PAYMENTS: THE EXPERIENCE OF UZBEKISTAN
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Abstract
Abstract: This article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of utilizing time series methodology to forecast customs payments collected for the state budget. According to the research findings, the ARIMA(1,1,0) model was identified as the most optimal model for forecasting customs receipts. Utilizing this model, a forecast of customs revenues for the years 2026–2028 was developed. The results of the study hold practical significance in improving the fiscal activities of customs authorities, precisely planning state budget revenues, and ensuring economic security.
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References
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